فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 1 (زمستان 1389)

This paper investigates the effect of concentration and advertising on profitability in Iranian Industrial firms, with more than 9 employees. Dynamic panel data technique is used along with the data during the period 1374-1381 to study this issue. The results show that the concentrated industries have a higher profitability than the others. In addition, advertising has a positive effect on the profit of the Iranian industries.

Total factor productivity of production as a dynamic and permanent source of economic growth is influenced by many factors; that based on existing theories, human capital are known as one of the most important factors. So in the present study, the role of human capital in promoting the total factor productivity of production in Iran’s economy for the period 1978 to 2005 were evaluated. Thus for human capital two dimensions of education and health and their effects along with other variables on productivity level were exerted and assessed. The results of estimate the model by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Method shows, the labor average years of schooling and the ratio of health expenditure on gross domestic product(GDP) (as the successors of human capital) have significant and positive effect on productivity level. Also the results of causality test confirm the existence of a unidirectional causal relationship between human capital and productivity.

This research investigates the existence of relationships between economic growth and carbon emissions in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the period of 1960 to 2005. A model relating economic growth and carbon emissions is used to examine the eventual existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. To test our hpothesis, the econometric panel data approach is employed. The results indicate that there is a positive relationship between gross domestic product and CO2 emissions. And, with persistence of economic growth this relationship becomes negative. That is, the estimation has given an EKC relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions in these countrries.

The subject of this research is the impact of monetary variables on economic growth in Iran. There is a dispute among economists about the impact of monetary variables on actual ones. Some believe that change in money volume affects only the nominal production and does not have any effect on actual variables of economy such as actual employment, actual production, and actual economic growth. The others claim, since there is monetary misgiving in economic factors the monetary variables can also influence the actual ones in short run and even long run and escalate the economic growth. The current research investigates different economic theories in this realm and tests them by applying existing information and statistics. This is an analytical and empirical research because it analyses events by experimental observations in several statistical models. On the other hand, it is a comparative study because, in the second section pertaining to the application of economics of money theories and model selection, it applies a model to measure the impact of money volume on economic variables. A descriptive method used in this research. This paper scrutinizes neutrality or non-neutrality of money during a period of 1338 to 1387 solar years in Iran with a monetarists’ approach. Findings show that there is not a significant relationship between money volume and actual economic variables, production and employment, in total and monestary policies are neutral in Iran. Gross domestic product in Iran does not fluctuate intensively except recent years and it has a normal direction. Unemployment rate fluctuates highly and is not normal.

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the foreign tourism demand for Iran during 1971-2005. This study proposes a new methodology – the time varying parameter (TVP) approach – to tourism demand modeling. To that end, the behavioral change of tourists over time is traced using the Kalman filter approach. Findings show that the income elasticity, price elasticity and habit formation have a regular declining trend over time. The elasticity of tourism demand with respect to the world per capita income is greater than that of the "cost of living" and "habit formation" indicators. The foreign tourism appears to be a normal good and inelastic to the domestic prices. In addition, tourism demand has decreased significantly during the Iran-Iraq war period.

In economic growth and development analysis, cultural change has a special situation. Cultural indicators can affect on production factors and economic growth endogenously and exogenously. Nowadays, in economic literature capital divided to: Physical, Human, Cultural, Social and Natural capital. In this research, first, we survey cultural indicators, and then point to production factors especially on capital and theatrically factors and GDP. In this research we used Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze short and long run relations between variables and then test the stability of model by CUSUM and CUSUMQ. Error Correction model (ECM) model is used to show how the short run shocks justify in next periods. Findings show that the model was stable and cultural indicators during 1975-2005 had significant and positive effect on economic growth of Iran.